000 AXNT20 KNHC 080004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI MAR 076 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT N OF 26N WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N69W TO 22N78W. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT01 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N20W TO 1N30W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 10W-14W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD APPEARS TO BE SHEARING OUT TO THE NE AS IT RIDES OVER A LARGE EXPANSIVE ANTICYCLONE AND RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR CAPE HATTERAS NC IS TURNING TO THE NE AND ELONGATING WITH TIME. THE TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND WAS BEING SUPPLANTED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE GULF W OF 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE GULF WAS GRADUALLY BEING OVERTAKEN BY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF 25N W OF 88W. AT THE SURFACE...1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISSISSIPPI RIDGED INTO THE GULF WITH NW WINDS E OF 90W AND RETURN SE FLOW DEVELOPING W OF 90W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE GULF N OF 24N AND E OF 91W AND EXTEND OVER FLORIDA. OVERCAST STRATUS CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND DRIZZLE WERE NOTED OVER THE GULF W OF 96W AND WERE BANKED UP ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE E ON SAT AND ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO EXPAND OVER THE GULF W OF 90W. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE W GULF EARLY SUN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS WAKE. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN EXPANSIVE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CARIBBEAN HAS SHIFTED E WITH A BROAD AREA OF S TO SW WINDS ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W. THIS FLOW WAS ADVECTING MAINLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE W OF 70W. THE SW N ATLC COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH THEN BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 20N84W TO THE WESTERN GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WAS DISSIPATING WITH TIME. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS RESULTING IN A PATCH OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS OVER JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WAS NOTED N OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR SAINT LUCIA TO S OF THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 17N68W. FRONT WILL STALL TONIGHT INTO THROUGH SAT THEN WEAKEN TO A TROUGH AND EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO 20N88W SUN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH SUN. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W-74W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND WITH FAIR CONDITIONS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MON WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO MOVE E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SAT COVERING THE AREA N OF THE ISLAND THROUGH MON. A W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO OVER E CUBA EARLY SAT WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE CENTRAL ATLC ALIGNING ALONG E/W ACROSS THE ISLAND SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLAND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EXTENDING INTO THE SW N ATLC W OF 72W IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NE OVER THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH 32N55W. THE DOWNSTREAM BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS FRO0M AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 30N19W SW THROUGH 17N40W TO A BASE NEAR 07N50W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE NOTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC W OF 30W FROM 08N TO 23N. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N73W TO BIMINI ISLAND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE FRONT WAS CLOSING IN ON A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH WAS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT 45-60 NM TO THE EAST AND S OF 30N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 27N. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 27N49W. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RE AND EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N67W TO E CUBA EARLY SAT THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE W ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB