000 AXNT20 KNHC 070606 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI MAR 07 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A GALE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATE FRI NIGHT OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC N OF 27N WITHIN 150 NM SE OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM 31N68W TO 21N78W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT01 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N18W TO 2N27W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 1N28W AND CONTINUES TO 0N35W TO COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 2S40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 17W-31W AND FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 11W-14W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 1N BETWEEN 1W-7W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 28N82W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ALONG 25N83W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N84W THEN INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS W-NW FROM THE LOW ALONG 28N86W TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N88W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE NE GULF IS ENHANCING SHOWERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 84W-86W WHILE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF THE COLD FRONT TO INCLUDE THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN GULF ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH ON THE BORDER OF ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15-20 KT W OF 90W WHILE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF THE SAME MAGNITUDE DOMINATES E OF THAT LONGITUDE. OTHERWISE...THE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE GULF WATERS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH SAT. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W GULF SUN MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH WITH A BASE OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN BY WESTERN CUBA NEAR 21N84W AND THEN EXTENDS ALONG 19N86W TO BELIZE AND THEN INTO GUATEMALA. THE TROUGHING ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N79W TO 22N81W TO 20N83W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTS SHOWERS WITHIN 160 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY N OF 20N AND WITHIN 80 NM S OF THAT LATITUDE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN. HOWEVER...SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ENTERING THE EASTERN BASIN WHICH MAY ENHANCE PASSING SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...TRADES OF 15-20 KT DOMINATE THE BASIN E OF 77W. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE OVER CUBA AND THE NW BASIN AND WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE EARLY SAT. HISPANIOLA... DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT CONTINUES TO HINDER DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...A PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CUBA INTO THE ISLAND MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HAITI...WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ADJACENT WATERS. LOOKING AHEAD...THE PROXIMITY OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MAY INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AREA ON SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE SW N ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH A 1005 MB LOW NEAR 31N78W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW SW TO THE COAST OF EASTERN FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE LOW ALONG 31N76W TO 30N72W TO 29N69W TO 30N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE N OF 23N W OF 73W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES AND A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 27N45W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR