000 AXNT20 KNHC 060604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU MAR 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE...GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO... PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO FRANCE GRAND LARGE METAREA II HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE IN THE AGADIR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 5N15W 3N23W AND 2N27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N27W TO 1N30W... CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 38W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 9W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 20W AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 35W AND 53W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 50W... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 90W. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE FEATURE THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS ABOUT 18 TO 24 HOURS AGO. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N60W TO 31N64W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N68W TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N72W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 30N76W AND 28N79W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N79W...ACROSS FLORIDA FROM 27N TO 28N...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N85W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N85W TO 27N90W AND TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N93W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 23N94W AND 20N95W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...SCATTERED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 75W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 86W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W 29N60W 24N70W 21N77W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AS A RIDGE...HAS BUILT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG THE COASTS/COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS AND MEXICO...TO 20N. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT ALL THE PLATFORM SITES/ ICAO STATIONS...EXCEPT FOR STATION KVBS...THAT IS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. THE LOW CLOUD CEILING THAT WAS BEING REPORTED AT STATION KATP DURING THE SEVERAL HOURS HAS BROKEN UP...SHOWING A CEILING AT 7000 FEET. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE ENTIRE GULF COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL AREAS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. HEAVY RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN BOOTHVILLE IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. PERRY STILL IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA COAST FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE NORTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE GREATER TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER PARTS OF THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO BE NEAR 28N85W...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 19N92W. EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 8 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 83W. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE VENEZUELA COAST THAT IS NEAR 11N69W...BEYOND HISPANIOLA...THEN CURVING THROUGH 25N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW...MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF 11N63W 13N70W 13N80W... TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 80W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 76W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N82W IN PANAMA BEYOND 6N90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ANY RAINSHOWERS THAT MAY BE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 76W...ARE RELATED TO TRADE WIND FLOW AND CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE VENEZUELA COAST THAT IS NEAR 11N69W...BEYOND HISPANIOLA...THEN CURVING THROUGH 25N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA...ASSOCIATED WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO CROSSES HISPANIOLA...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ABOUT 250 NM TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING AT 6000 FEET COVER PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER SANTO DOMINGO...AS EARLIER CLOUD CEILINGS AT 7000 FEET HAVE DISAPPEARED. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY-TO- SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...AS A RIDGE MOVES FROM VENEZUELA EASTWARD TO A POSITION THAT IS ABOUT 70 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TRINIDAD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT STARTS NEAR A POSITION THAT IS ABOUT 250 NM TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...AND THEN ENDS NEAR A POSITION THAT IS ABOUT 560 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WILL START IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR A POSITION THAT IS ABOUT 500 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO...AND THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL END UP IN 48 HOURS AT A POSITION THAT IS ABOUT 850 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N45W TO 29N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS...WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N44W 28N49W 25N53W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 20W FROM 20N BEYOND 32N. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 40W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 37N23W...THROUGH 32N31W...TO 27N46W...TO A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N53W...TO 27N67W...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 76W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT