000 AXNT20 KNHC 052355 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED MAR 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AFRICAN CONTINENT AND A RELATIVELY STRONG 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N23W. GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOROCCO COAST FROM 29N-32N E OF 14W. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BY 06/0300 UTC AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. SEE LATEST METEO-FRANCE METAREA II HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W TO 01N27W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N27W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 37W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 05N BETWEEN 15W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF WITH ENERGY FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF 30N99W THAT CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE NW GULF WATERS THIS EVENING. AS OF 05/2100 UTC...THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED AS A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 25N94W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING GENERALLY N OF 24N BETWEEN 83W-95W. WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO MOVE E-NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW EAST-NORTHEAST TO 28N87W AND CONNECTS TO AN EXISTING STATIONARY FRONT ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA ENTERING THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR THE TAMPA BAY REGION. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A SHOT OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY THAT IS NEEDED TO EJECT THE LOW NE TOWARDS THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT GRADUALLY DEEPENS AND CROSSES NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN THIS EVENING AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT W OF 66W. THE ONLY NOTABLE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS N OF 17N BETWEEN 77W-81W...INCLUDING JAMAICA...THE ADJACENT SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA...AND PORTIONS OF INLAND EASTERN CUBA. FARTHER EAST...REMAINING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N61W HOWEVER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW- TOPPED SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO...THE MONA PASSAGE...AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE... TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...20 TO 25 KT...NOTED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. WHILE THIS ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY...OVERALL TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE DUE LARGELY TO WEST- NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND THE ASSOCIATED DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 34N80W THAT SUPPORTS A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N76W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE LOW TO 31N72W AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO 30N69W. A COLD FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N80W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC GENERALLY NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 26N69W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N81W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DIFFLUENT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ARE MAXIMIZED OVER THIS AREA. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N54W. THE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC AS WELL ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N23W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN