000 AXNT20 KNHC 051734 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED MAR 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 30N- 32N E OF 13W THROUGH TODAY. PLEASE SEE METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N14W TO 3N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N28W 1N39W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 17W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING S OVER THE W GULF WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO 24N90W. THE COMPLEX SURFACE FEATURES AT 05/1500 UTC CONSISTS OF FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA OVER CAPE CANAVERAL TO JUST N OF TAMPA BAY CONTINUING TO 28N84W WHERE IT BECOMES A WARM FRONT ALONG 28N87W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 25N92W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG 22N93W TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. A WIND SHIFT DEPICTED AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N90W TO OVER S MEXICO NEAR 19N92W. THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF THE WARM FRONT TO 24N BETWEEN 85W-91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT THE AREA N OF THE WARM FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE LOW WILL DRAG THE FRONT EASTWARD AS IT MOVES TO NE GULF TONIGHT AND INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THU NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE GULF EARLY FRI. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRI AND SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N OVER THE W ATLC. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN WITH SOME MOISTURE MOVING IN OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 16N ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN 77W-81W. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 67W-71W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 11N W OF 80W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT AND STALL FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS FRI NIGHT. HISPANIOLA... SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE ISLAND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC E OF 70W WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS GENERATED BY THE TRADE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI GIVING THE ISLAND FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE THU/EARLY FRI WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THEN AGAIN MOVE OVER THE ISLAND INCREASING SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC AT 05/1500 UTC FROM A 1016 MB LOW OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 31N79W TO ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. A WIND SHIFT DEPICTED AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N77W TO 27N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC DRAPES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N64W AND CONTINUES ALONG 29N70W TO THE 1016 MB LOW OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES AND A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 28N54W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT. A SECOND LOW CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC BY FRI. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM 31N72W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW