000 AXNT20 KNHC 042349 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE MAR 04 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 03N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 22W-30W...AND S OF 05N BETWEEN 38W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER TEXAS WITH ENERGY FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF 29N98W. AS OF 04/2100 UTC...THIS SHORTWAVE SUPPORTS A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED AS A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 25N94W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 24N BETWEEN 85W-96W. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW EASTWARD TO 26N87W AND CONNECTS TO AN ALREADY EXISTING STATIONARY FRONT ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA ENTERING THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR THE TAMPA BAY REGION. AS EXPECTED...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROVIDING A SECONDARY PUSH OF ENERGY WITH A NEW COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER S-SW TO 21N96W. STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NW AND N QUADRANTS OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT BY WEDNESDAY. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE SLOWLY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY FINALLY EXITING THE BASIN NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC BY FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN THIS EVENING AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT W OF 70W. THE ONLY NOTABLE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS N OF 17N BETWEEN 76W-81W...INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE ADJACENT SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA. FARTHER EAST...REMAINING MID- LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DIPS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N63W HOWEVER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...20 TO 30 KT...NOTED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY FAIR SKIES ARE NOTED ON THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY AND THIS OVERALL TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE QUIET WEATHER IS LARGELY DUE TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND THE ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AND STABLE AIR ALOFT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 33N59W THAT SUPPORTS AN ELONGATED FRONTAL TROUGH ZONE EXTENDING NORTH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC DISCUSSION AREA. THE FRONTAL TROUGH FOCUSES ON A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N71W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING GENERALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 29N W OF 67W. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 26N48W S TO A BASE NEAR 17N53W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A WEAK 1018 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N51W AND AN ASSOCIATED DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW TO 22N53W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 24N BETWEEN 46W-52W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N24W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN