000 AXNT20 KNHC 041745 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE MAR 04 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES TO 5N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N26W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 1N E OF 1W ACROSS THE EQUATOR AND THE PRIME MERIDIAN. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A REMNANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND FORT MYERS ALONG 25N85W TO 25N90W WHERE IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG 23N95W TO THE COAST OF S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS OVER THE NW ATLC. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS S TEXAS AND NE MEXICO INTO THE NW GULF BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N W OF 92W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE N GULF N OF 27N E OF 92W ACROSS FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN. THE AREA S OF THE FRONT IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE UNTIL A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG IT NEAR 24N94W ON WED. SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG THE FRONT E AS THE LOW MOVES TO 28N88W WED NIGHT AND INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THU WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA THU. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF ON FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS N OF 14N E OF 66W TO OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS...N OF 17N BETWEEN 73W-80W INCLUDING JAMAICA PORTIONS OF HAITI AND CUBA...S OF 17N W OF 83W TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND THE YUCATAN...AND S OF 10N BETWEEN 80W-83W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE EACH NIGHT ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY FRI. HISPANIOLA... SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE ISLAND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SW HAITI WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS GENERATED BY THE TRADE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI. FAIR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THU/EARLY FRI WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THEN AGAIN MOVE OVER THE ISLAND INCREASING SHOWERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC DRAPES A COLD INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N70W ALONG 29N78W TO ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR MELBOURNE. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N69W 29N76W TO 26N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE N OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC TO A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N46W TO 22N51W. A WEAK 1018 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N52W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 26N51W TO 23N53W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 19N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE ABOVE FRONTS WITH A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N59W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH ABOUT 200 NM SE OF THE AZORES. W ATLC FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH WED. THIS FRONT WILL THEN LIFT N WED NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A SECOND LOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL APPROACH W ATLC AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM 31N76W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW