000 AXNT20 KNHC 041150 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE MAR 04 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT EXIST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...IT IS APPARENT INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 6N14W...TO 2N20W... CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 24W...TO 2S40W...TO 3S34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 16W AND 28W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 44W AND 48W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W... BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. ANY AMOUNT OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH THAT IS SUPPORTING THE CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N74W...TO FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N90W...TO 25N93W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AT 25N93W AND IT CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST... ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO...TO 26N100W AND BEYOND THE TEXAS BIG BEND. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 27N80W TO 24N88W AND 18N95W IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 28N80W AT THE FLORIDA COAST. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 24N TO 31N BETWEEN 92W AND 98W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...ALONG THE MEXICO COAST TO 23N98W...TO 20N97W...AND 19N95W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT ALL THE PLATFORM SITES/ ICAO STATIONS. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER THE ENTIRE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE REST OF THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO SARASOTA FLORIDA. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM FORT MYERS TO PUNTA GORDA DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE COLD FRONT FROM 28N83W TO 24N94W TO 19N97W. EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO 25N TO THE WEST OF 94W. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIA COAST THAT IS NEAR 10N76W...TO 17N80W...BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH A 26N53W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N55W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 16N62W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 11N64W JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW...ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 70W...FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 80W... TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA INCLUDING IN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...AND TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 04/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.33 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT EXIST AT THE MOMENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NOR IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET...THE HIGHEST NEAR THE COLOMBIA COAST...FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO CROSSES HISPANIOLA... ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAHAMAS. CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO...PUNTA CANA...AND IN SANTIAGO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY-TO- WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAHAMAS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD WITH TIME...ENDING UP AT LEAST 550 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO A 26N53W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N55W...TO 16N62W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 11N64W JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N49W TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N52W... WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 22N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 22N55W TO 18N61W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 23N TO 31N BETWEEN 48W AND 52W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS...ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W...AND FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N61W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ANDROS ISLAND...TO 24N80W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N24W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 40W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 34N5W IN MOROCCO...TO A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N24W...CONTINUING THROUGH 32N32W TO 29N38W 24N46W...AND TO 18N52W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT 31N77W TO 29N82W. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT...AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET...TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 70W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N49W TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N52W...WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 22N55W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT