000 AXNT20 KNHC 031801 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON MAR 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF MEXICO... AT 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N87W SW TO 25N93W TO TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 23N97W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP N OF FRONT TO 25N W OF 96W STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA AFRICA NEAR 4N7W TO 3N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 3N14W TO 1S30W TO 0S48W. CONVECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE IS NOTED FROM 0N TO 3N BETWEEN 16W-21W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 3S-3N BETWEEN 25W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM MAINE SW TO TENNESSEE TO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT AT 1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA NEAR 30N87W TO 25N93W TO TAMPICO MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE REMAINDER GULF WITH MODERATE MOISTURE STREAMING NE OVER THE NORTHERN BASIN. THIS MOISTURE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF THE FRONT W OF 94W. CURRENTLY NORTHERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 30 KT IS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF...HOWEVER GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. A 1012 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N96W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN IS ENHANCING SHOWERS W OF THE LOW CENTER INLAND MEXICO. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLC CONTINUES TO PROVIDE RETURN FLOW OF 10-15 KT TO THE EASTERN GULF. DRY AIR PREVAILS ALOFT AND AT THE LOWER LEVELS E AND S OF THE FRONT WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OTHERWISE...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM FRONT TUE MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL W-SW WIND FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS. THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES ALOFT TRADUCE TO MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN CENTRAL ATLC SW INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT WHICH DISSIPATING TAIL EXTENDS INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHERE SHOWERS HAS BEEN REPORTED. REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WESTERN AND SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION. REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER EASTERN CUBA TUE NIGHT ENHANCING SHOWERS OVER THIS REGION. HISPANIOLA... REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS GENERATING NUBOSITY AND ENHANCING PASSING SHOWERS. THIS MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD TO OVER JAMAICA TONIGHT AND INTO EASTERN CUBA TUE NIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NONE EFFECT OVER HISPANIOLA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 30N66W COVERS THE SW N ATLC AND PROVIDES FAIR WEATHER. FARTHER EAST... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 36N49W TO 30N51W TO 23N55W TO 20N58W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE N OF 25N BETWEEN 47W-53W AS WELL AS WITHIN 130 NM EAST OF THE FRONT S OF 25N. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N26W. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT WHILE A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR