000 AXNT20 KNHC 030553 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON MAR 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 18 HOURS... A COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG 30N85W 22N96W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 22N TO 25N TO THE WEST OF 96W. EXPECT ALSO NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE WEST OF 94W... ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT AND TO THE WEST OF 90W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W...CURVING TO 9N17W...6N17W AND 5N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N20W...TO 2N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 35W...TO 4S43W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN CLUSTERS FROM 2S TO 3N BETWEEN 26W AND 37W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 4N TO THE EAST OF 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN BRAZIL FROM 3S TO 1N BETWEEN 48W AND 51W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS IN CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND NORTHWESTWARD TO 20N100W IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF 29N90W 24N98W. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE IS MOVING FROM MEXICO AND TEXAS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH EAST TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST REGION...AND THEN WESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 28N100W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR NORTHWARD INTO LOUISIANA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N70W...TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N90W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS OF 500 FEET OR LOWER...WITH FOG AND VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS...ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE PLATFORMS THAT ARE THE CLOSEST TO THE TEXAS COAST. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE ELSEWHERE AT...KEMK...KGUL...KEHC...KCRH...AND KIPN. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS FROM HARLINGEN WESTWARD. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND AREAS OF RAIN COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL LOUISIANA. RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. CLEARING SKIES COVER MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS MILTON AND CRESTVIEW IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO THE PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN AREA...FROM APALACHICOLA TO MARIANNA...PATCHES OF FOG WITH VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS ARE BEING REPORTED CURRENTLY AND/OR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN THE FORT MYERS AREA...AND IN NAPLES DURING THE LAST OBSERVATION. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 6-HOUR FORECAST OF A COLD FRONT FROM 30N92W TO 27N97W. EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER...NORTHWESTWARD TO NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND NORTHWESTWARD TO 20N100W IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 22N61W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N70W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 25N60W TO 19N65W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 67W AND 75W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW...ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 70W...AND ELSEWHERE BETWEEN THE LINES...FROM WESTERN JAMAICA-TO-HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W AND FROM 14N75W-TO-THE PANAMA COAST NEAR 9N78W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/1200 UTC... ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.09 IN GUADELOUPE AND TRINIDAD...AND 0.03 IN KINGSTON IN JAMAICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT EXIST AT THE MOMENT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W...INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS HISPANIOLA...BASED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 22N61W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N70W. CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER PUNTA CANA AND PUERTO PLATA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS COVER SANTIAGO. RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS AROUND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AT SOME OBSERVATION SITES. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH IS DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 22N61W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N70W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 25N60W TO 19N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 100 NM TO 200 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT FROM 25N TO 33N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 23N57W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N57W 18N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 67W AND 75W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.57 FOR BERMUDA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N70W...TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N90W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N40W. THE CENTER IS COMPARATIVELY LESS WELL-DEFINED NOW THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 24N40W CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 34N5W IN MOROCCO...TO A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N29W...CONTINUING THROUGH 32N36W TO 29N41W 25N46W...AND TO 19N57W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N56W TO 19N65W. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 48W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 60W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W AND FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 62W AND 75W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 26N TO THE EAST OF 45W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 48W AND 54W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. A THIRD AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF THE 18-HOUR FORECAST OF SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 77W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT