000 AXNT20 KNHC 022351 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN MAR 02 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A GALE WARNING IS FORECASTED FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH MON AFTERNOON AND GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUE. THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF LATER TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 5N8W AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N10W TO 3N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 1N27W AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AREA BETWEEN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ ALONG 5N24W TO 3N26W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 4W-9W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE GULF AND THE E CONUS NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF S OF 27N. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER. SOUTHERN RETURN FLOW REMAINS OVER THE NW GULF BANKING LOW CLOUDS N OF 27N W OF 93W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING S OVER THE PLAIN STATES TO TEXAS AND N MEXICO SUPPORTING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE GULF LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NW GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E THROUGH EARLY MON AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW GULF TONIGHT REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO EARLY MON MORNING AND FROM SW FLORIDA TO TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TUE. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT IN N OVER THE E GULF WED AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE W GULF. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NE GULF WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 80W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GENERATING POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 16N BETWEEN 66W-74W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS S OF 17N BETWEEN 76W-83W AND FROM 12N-17N E OF 55W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THU. HISPANIOLA... REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GENERATING POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 16N BETWEEN 66W-74W INCLUDING ALL OF HISPANIOLA. THIS MOISTURE/SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH MON WITH SKIES CLEARING ON TUE. GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COVER THE ISLAND THROUGH THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 31N73W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 31N57W AND EXTENDS ALONG TO 26N61W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 22N66W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N57W ALONG 25N59W TO 20N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT/TROUGH ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH ABOUT 200 NM S OF THE AZORES. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC EARLY TONIGHT. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MON. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE E MON EVENING THROUGH TUE WHILE WEAKENING ALLOWING FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST MON NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 31N75W TO SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N78W AND TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH EARLY TUE. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N73W TO A SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N78W AND TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL BY EARLY TUE. THE SURFACE LOW WILL THEN MOVE NE OF AREA WED WITH WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM NEAR 31N72W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH BY WED LATE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW