000 AXNT20 KNHC 021802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN MAR 02 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 5N5W TO 3N11W TO 3N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 0N27W TO 0S40W TO 0S50W. CONVECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE IS NOTED FROM 1N TO 3N E OF 17W...FROM 3S-2N BETWEEN 28W-34W AND WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 4N23W TO 2S25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF WHICH ALONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER SE GEORGIA NEAR 30N81W EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND WESTERN ATLC WATERS INTO THE GULF AND PROVIDES RETURN FLOW OF 15- 20 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CARIBBEAN ALONG THE NW GULF COAST WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE E PACIFIC INTO THIS REGION. THIS MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING ADVECTION FOG ALONG THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS AS WELL AS GULF ADJACENT WATERS N OF 27N. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TAMPICO MEXICO EARLY MONDAY. BY TUE MORNING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY BEFORE THE PORTION OVER THE GULF TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL NEAR WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. HOWEVER...A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC SW INTO THE CENTRAL-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC WHICH DISSIPATING TAIL EXTENDS INTO EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE TROUGHING IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS ALSO SUPPORTS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE MONA PASSAGE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ADJACENT WATERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDING TO HAITI. SSMI TPW IMAGERY ALSO SHOW PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE ENTERING THE SE CARIBBEAN WATERS THUS ENHANCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS HAS BEEN REPORTED WEST OF ROATAN ISLAND IN THE NW BASIN. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE MIDDLE ATLC AND SOUTHEAST STATES AS WELL AS ADJACENT WESTERN N ATLC WATERS IS PROVIDING NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT W OF 74W WHILE TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE OVER THE REMAINDER BASIN. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NE BUT LINGERING MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA UNTIL EARLY MONDAY. HISPANIOLA... RAINSHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC WITH TAIL EXTENDING INTO EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH AXIS ENTERING THE MONA PASSAGE. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT NE...TRAILING MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN N ATLC WHICH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1005 MB LOW NEAR 35N56W TO 30N59W TO 22N65W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W. THE TROUGHING ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 26N59W TO 21N64W TO THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W TO 17N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES ARE N OF 25N BETWEEN 53W-60W AS WELL AS WITHIN 160 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 19N. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT EAST OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N37W IS ENHANCING SOME SHOWERS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 34W-38W. MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EASTERN ATLC IS ALSO ENHANCING SHOWERS BETWEEN A LINE FROM 20N18W TO 10N31W AND A LINE FROM 22N21W TO 11N31W TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N29W AND A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 42N35W. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NE AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR