000 AXNT20 KNHC 021205 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN MAR 02 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...A GALE WARNING EXISTS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N62W 20N71W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 13 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 67W. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 70W. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 60W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE IVORY COAST NEAR 5N5W TO 2N10W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N10W... CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 16W...TO 1S18W...REACHING THE EQUATOR A SECOND TIME ALONG 23W...TO 1S26W AND 1S36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 18W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 3S BETWEEN 24W AND 36W. SCATTERED STRONG IN ONE CELL OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 48W AND 49W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO/THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO... BEYOND WEST TEXAS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT ALL THE ICAO STATIONS THAT ARE TO THE WEST OF 80W...INCLUDING KMDJ...EXCEPT FOR KEMK AND KGUL. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS...AND THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG COVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... AND THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER...NORTHWESTWARD TO NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND NORTHWESTWARD RIGHT THROUGH MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.A. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N50W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 21N57W...ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF VENEZUELA. THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS REACHING HISPANIOLA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 30N62W. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 79W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW...FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE EAST OF 70W...BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 24- HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/0000 UTC... ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.13 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT EXIST AT THE MOMENT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W...MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST IN TRADE WIND FLOW. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. EXPECT ALSO NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W...INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ...HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING HISPANIOLA FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 30N66W. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W. CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS COVER SANTO DOMINGO AND SANTIAGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUNTA CANA...AND IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE DIRECTLY IN A TROUGH AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD GRADUALLY WITH TIME...BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY WIND ACROSS THE AREA GRADUALLY. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL CROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO...AS HISPANIOLA WILL BE AT THE BASE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH. THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. THE WIND FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 27N65W...TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THAT IS ALONG 70W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W 25N65W...TO THE NORTHERN COASTAL BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 80 NM TO 130 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO 31N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 53W AND 65W. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 79W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.25 FOR BERMUDA. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N42W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 23N42W CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 29W AND 50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 40W AND 43W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 33N6W IN MOROCCO...TO A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N29W...CONTINUING TO 34N39W... TO 30N44W 27N50W 22N59W...TO THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 12N TO 18N TO THE EAST OF 45W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 46W AND 54W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT