000 AXNT20 KNHC 020521 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN MAR 02 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...A GALE WARNING EXISTS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N64W 20N74W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 14 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 70W. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 75W. EXPECT ALSO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 58W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE IVORY COAST NEAR 5N6W TO 3N8W AND 2N12W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N12W TO 1N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 23W...TO 2S30W 2S34W... INTO COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 4S41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 4S BETWEEN 14W AND 35W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE EAST OF 10W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 2N TO THE WEST OF 41W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO/THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO... BEYOND WEST TEXAS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...RANGING FROM 4000 FEET TO 5000 FEET...ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF... KBQX...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...KGBK...KEHC...KCRH. ICAO STATION KDLP IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING AT 400 FEET. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AT 5000 FEET OR LOWER COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. CLEARING SKIES...SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS...COVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG IS BEING REPORTED IN PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT MARATHON IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER...NORTHWESTWARD TO NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND NORTHWESTWARD RIGHT THROUGH MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.A. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N50W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 21N57W...ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF VENEZUELA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING HISPANIOLA FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 30N66W. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW...FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE EAST OF 70W...BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 78W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 24- HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/0000 UTC... ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.13 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT EXIST AT THE MOMENT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 78W...MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST IN TRADE WIND FLOW. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THE 6-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 81W...INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ...HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING HISPANIOLA FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 30N66W. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W. CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS COVER SANTO DOMINGO AND SANTIAGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUNTA CANA...AND IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE DIRECTLY IN A TROUGH AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD GRADUALLY WITH TIME...BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY WIND ACROSS THE AREA GRADUALLY. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL CROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO...AS HISPANIOLA WILL BE AT THE BASE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH. THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. THE WIND FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W...TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N64W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1009 MB LOW CENTER...TO 25N69W...ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO 20N74W IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 120 NM TO 200 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT FROM 20N TO 31N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM TO 210 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 27N63W...AND THEN WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 27N63W TO 21N67W. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W. THE 24- HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.25 FOR BERMUDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N38W...TO A 23N42W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 10N45W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 43W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 34N5W IN MOROCCO...TO A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N28W...CONTINUING THROUGH 32N40W...TO 30N47W 26N55W AND 20N63W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 11N TO THE EAST OF 40W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE FROM 31N43W TO 20N52W TO 10N59W TO 07N55W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT