000 AXNT20 KNHC 012355 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT MAR 01 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 4N7W AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N11W 4N18W TO 3N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N26W ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-40W THEN 1N45W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 6W-17W AND FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 17W-23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE GULF AND THE E CONUS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE NW ATLC ACROSS GEORGIA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SOUTHERN RETURN FLOW COVERS THE W GULF AND IS GENERATING LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN VERACRUZ MEXICO AND CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE GULF THROUGH SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF EARLY MON REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE MON BEFORE LIFTING N OVER THE E GULF WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. NW ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. A FRONT OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS TO OVER E CUBA WITH A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDING TO THE NW COAST OF HAITI. THIS IS BRINGING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GENERATING POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 18N BETWEEN 72W-76W INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND CUBA. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 12N E OF 71W TO ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THESE SAME TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA W OF 81W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH WED. HISPANIOLA... A COLD FRONT AND A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ARE OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE COAST OF HAITI NEAR 20N73W. THIS IS GENERATING POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 18N W OF 72W INCLUDING THE W PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ALL OF HAITI. THE FRONT AND TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE N COAST OF THE ISLAND THROUGH SUN TO OVER PUERTO RICO WHERE IT WILL STALL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION FROM A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 31N68W ALONG 28N68W TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 22N73W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO OVER E CUBA NEAR 20N75W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N65W TO 24N69W TO THE N COAST OF HAITI NEAR 20N73W. THIS IS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT/TROUGH ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH ABOUT 250 NM S OF THE AZORES. W ATLC FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE W ATLC TO 32N58W TO PUERTO RICO SUN WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATES BY TUE. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN INTO MON. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 31N70W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS LATE TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW