000 AXNT20 KNHC 011804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT MAR 01 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 5N4W TO 3N15W TO 2N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 2N21W TO 0N33W TO 0N43W TO 0S49W. CONVECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS NOTED FROM 0N TO 5N BETWEEN E OF 21W. SCATTERED MODERATE ALSO FROM 1S-3N BETWEEN 22W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF WHICH ALONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH SE OF NOVA SCOTIA AND A 1029 MB HIGH OVER VIRGINIA EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN COAST INTO THE GULF AND PROVIDES RETURN FLOW OF 5-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF REGION EARLY MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE MON. BY TUE MORNING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY WHILE IT STARTS TO WEAKEN. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE STREAM WESTWARD WITH THE TRADE WIND FLOW ENHANCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AN ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND ADJACENT W ATLC WATERS IS PROVIDING NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10-15 KT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE TRADES OF THE SAME MAGNITUDE COVER THE REMAINDER BASIN. OTHERWISE A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST N ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT WHICH TAIL EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N75W. THE TROUGH ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WHICH SOUTHERN AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BEING ENHANCED OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HAITI. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NE BUT LINGERING MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER HAITI ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC WITH TAIL EXTENDING INTO EASTERN CUBA AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH AXIS ENTERING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT NE...TRAILING MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND TROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN N ATLC WHICH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 30N69W TO 25N71W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N75W. THE TROUGHING ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 27N65W TO 24N70W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES ARE N OF 24N BETWEEN 62W-68W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N28W. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NE TO BE W OF 60W BY SAT MORNING AND DISSIPATING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR