000 AXNT20 KNHC 011205 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT MAR 01 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W TO 4N13W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N13W TO 1N20W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W...TO 1S37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 34W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS SPANNING FLORIDA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS OR SO HAS MOVED EASTWARD. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER...NORTHWESTWARD TO NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND NORTHWESTWARD RIGHT THROUGH MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.A. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATIONS THAT ARE FROM THE LINE THAT REACHES THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST WESTWARD...EXCEPT FOR ICAO STATION KEHC...AND ELSEWHERE LOW CLOUD CEILINGS EXCEPT FOR ICAO STATION KATP. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG COVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COAST ELSEWHERE NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA...AND IN THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER...NORTHWESTWARD TO NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND NORTHWESTWARD RIGHT THROUGH MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.A. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N57W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO NORTHWESTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA ALONG 70W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW...TO THE EAST OF 70W...TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN JAMAICA AND 83W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT EXIST AT THE MOMENT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVES HISPANIOLA. CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER SANTIAGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO...PUNTA CANA...AND PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH A TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MOST OF THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS OF THE OVERALL 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH PASSES DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. THE WIND FLOW THEN BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE TIME AS THE TROUGH PASSES. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT LIGHT WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA...AS A HISPANIOLA FINDS ITSELF IN A COL FOR THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS SPANNING FLORIDA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS OR SO HAS MOVED EASTWARD. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS AROUND THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W...TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N72W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1013 MB LOW CENTER...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 270 NM TO 300 NM TO THE EAST OF THE 1013 MB LOW CENTER AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FROM 20N TO 28N. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N75W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 31N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N79W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...24N72W...TO 30N67W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 56W AND 73W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 28/1200 UTC... ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.34 FOR BERMUDA...AND 0.15 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N38W TO 24N40W TO 17N45W TO 10N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 40W AND 43W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 33N5W IN MOROCCO...TO A 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N29W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM THE 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N29W...THROUGH 32N39W...TO 33N41W 28N53W...TO NORTH CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N64W TO THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE CENTER 1013 MB NEAR 29N72W...TO 24N80W. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE CENTER...1014 MB...IS NEAR 30N75W. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29 BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. EXPECT ALSO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 72W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 56W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO LINE FROM 31N39W TO 22N51W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT