000 AXNT20 KNHC 010603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT MAR 01 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 3N20W 2N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N24W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 33W...ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 46W...TO 1S48W ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 2W AND 7W...AND FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 8W AND 14W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 2S TO 5N TO THE EAST OF 33W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 40W AND 51W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPANS FLORIDA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER...NORTHWESTWARD TO NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND NORTHWESTWARD RIGHT THROUGH MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.A. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W... INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...KGBK...KEHC...KCRH...KVBS... KATP...KEIR...KSPR...KMDJ...AND KDLP. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... A LOW CLOUD CEILING HAS BEEN REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN CORPUS CHRISTI FOR THE LAST OBSERVATION...IN PALACIOS...IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...AND IN THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST AT BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA. HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE FOUND FROM PENSACOLA TO MILTON IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN MARY ESTHER AND VALPARAISO. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN KEY WEST...AT THE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER...NORTHWESTWARD TO NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND NORTHWESTWARD RIGHT THROUGH MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.A. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N57W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO NORTHWESTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA ALONG 70W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW...TO THE EAST OF 70W...TO THE NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 84W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N82W IN WESTERN PANAMA...BEYOND 6N86W INTO EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF COSTA RICA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVES HISPANIOLA. CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO...SANTIAGO...AND IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PORT-AU- PRINCE IN HAITI. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW IN A TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MOST OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE OVERALL 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND FLOW THEN BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE TIME AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHERN WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY- TO-NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE IS ACROSS THE AREA FROM HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA FOR MUCH OF THE LAST 24 HOURS OF THE OVERALL FORECAST PERIOD. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPANS FLORIDA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS AROUND THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1014 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N76W...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 26N76W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 28N70W...TO ANDROS ISLAND. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM ANDROS ISLAND...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N73W...JUST TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...TO 22N73W...TO 19N74W NEAR WESTERN HAITI. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N79W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...24N74W...BEYOND 32N69W. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 27N65W BEYOND 32N46W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 28/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.34 FOR BERMUDA...AND 0.15 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N39W TO 25N40W TO 17N45W TO 10N48W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 33N6W IN MOROCCO...TO A 1037 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N29W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM THE 1037 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N29W...THROUGH 32N39W...TO 27N53W...TO NORTH CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N62W TO 26N72W THEN STATIONARY TO 23N81W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM 31N41W TO 22N51W TO 07N55W, FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT