000 AXNT20 KNHC 282340 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 4N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 4N16W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W THEN CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR TO NEAR 40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 2N TO 4.5N BETWEEN 7W AND 12W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG EASTERN MEXICO DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF REGION PRODUCING A W TO NW WIND FLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT STRETCHES ACROSS WESTERN CUBA CROSSING JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO FRI. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS ALREADY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER TEXAS. THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH PRES IS OVER THE NE PART OF THE GULF. THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF REGION EARLY MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE MON. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER WESTERN CUBA. MOST OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOW AFFECTING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CUBA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON SAT WHILE WEAKENING. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED S TO SW WINDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN JUST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...MAINLY N OF 20N W OF 80W AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE EACH NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE ISLAND. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL SATURDAY DUE TO DRY AND STABLE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE SAT AND COULD BRING SOME INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY BY SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS AND FLORIDA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N63W TO 25N75W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THEN CONTINUES TO WESTERN CUBA. A 210 NM WIDE BAND OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT PER SCATTEROMETER DATA AND EXTENDS FROM 31N80W TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON THE 21Z SURFACE MAP. GLOBAL MODEL SUGGESTS A LOW PRES DEVELOPING JUST N OF THE NW BAHAMAS THAT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ENE. THIS LOW WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC REACHING EASTERN CUBA BY SAT AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY SAT NIGHT. EXPECT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N29W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY...THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS MAINLY N OF 15N E OF 40W WHERE THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GR