000
AXNT20 KNHC 281743
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                       
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 4N8W TO 
3N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
3N18W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                           
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. 
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE W OF 93W AND S OF 
27N E OF 87W. A 95-100 KT JETSTREAM IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF 
FROM THE W COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 30N94W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. 
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                        
GENERALLY UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WITH BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY DRY AIR AND 
STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. THIS OVERALL STABILITY IS RESULTING IN 
FAIR SKIES AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE FRI. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SOME LIGHT RAIN 
IS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT. 
TRADE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA...AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
  
HISPANIOLA...                                                    
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TOP CLOUDS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SW 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. OTHERWISE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE 
AREA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL 
THROUGH SAT DUE TO DRY AND STABLE AIR  ALOFT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED OVER THE 
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT 
EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N68W TO 28N69W THEN 
STATIONARY TO WESTERN CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS 
AREA ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN 
WITHIN 280 NM W OF THE FRONT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 25N39W. A 85-95 KT JETSTREAM IS S 
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM 12N49W TO THE AFRICAN COAST 
NEAR 20N16W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS