000 AXNT20 KNHC 281141 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI FEB 28 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 03N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 37W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 03N BETWEEN 18W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS WHERE THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY W-SW INTO THE SW GULF NEAR 19N93W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS FLORIDA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA NEAR 32N87W CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE NORTHERN GULF WITH OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS. THE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. THE NEXT FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY EARLY MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. THIS OVERALL STABILITY IS RESULTING IN FAIR SKIES AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TRADE WINDS PERSIST WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED GENERALLY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. IN ADDITION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STATIONARY AND DRAPED ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO IS GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN...NW OF A LINE FROM 22N81W TO 18N88W. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND...INCLUDING THE WESTERN ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DUE TO DRY AND STABLE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND NORTHWEST NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N63W. THE FRONT EXTENDS SW TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 300 NM NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME STATIONARY DURING THE WEEKEND WITH GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING N OF 26N BETWEEN 60W-78W WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP AND RESULTING IN STRONG E- NE WINDS N OF 30N EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N27W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN