000 AXNT20 KNHC 280545 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI FEB 28 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 02N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N17W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 11W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS SW TO THE SW GULF NEAR 19N94W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS FLORIDA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF 28N. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SW LOUISIANA NEAR 29N93W CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS. THE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. THE NEXT FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY EARLY MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. THIS OVERALL STABILITY IS RESULTING IN FAIR SKIES AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TRADE WINDS PERSIST WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED GENERALLY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. IN ADDITION...THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO IS GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN...NW OF A LINE FROM 22N81W TO 19N87W. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND...INCLUDING THE WESTERN ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY DUE TO DRY AND STABLE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND NORTHWEST NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N65W. THE FRONT EXTENDS SW TO THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N81W AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 300 NM NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME STATIONARY DURING THE WEEKEND WITH GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING N OF 26N BETWEEN 60W-78W WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP AND RESULTING IN STRONG E-NE WINDS N OF 30N EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED S-SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N26W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN