000 AXNT20 KNHC 280245 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU FEB 27 2014 CORRECTED DAY NUMBER IN HEADER TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 5N8W TO 2N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 1N16W TO 0S28W TO 2S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 3N-5N E OF 15W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL U.S. TO THE N WESTERN ATLC NEAR 60W AND WITH BASE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AS A COLD FRONT AND THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF ALONG 25N81W SW TO 23N86W 20N91W TO A 1013 MB LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF STREAMING E-NE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND PART OF THE SW N ATLC IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUSTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 25N E OF 89W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE IN THE SW GULF IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WHERE SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICT MODERATE VALUES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH CENTERS...A 1026 MB HIGH OVER MINNESOTA AND A 1019 MB HIGH OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 29N93W...EXTENDS INTO THE GULF PROVIDING NELY WIND FLOW OF 10-20 KT N OF THE FRONT. ANTICYCLONIC WIND OF 5 KT SURROUNDS THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NW GULF. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WHEN IT WILL STALL FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHILE WEAKENING. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN THROUGHOUT SUN NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... EXCEPT FOR THE NE CARIBBEAN...WESTERLY FLOW REIGNS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS ALOFT. IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS...A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED SE OF PUERTO RICO COVERS THE BASIN AND SUPPORT SUBSIDENCE OF VERY DRY AIR DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THESE SYNOPTIC PATTERNS ALOFT ARE PROVIDING SURFACE OVERALL STABILITY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE BASIN. SOME PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE FAR NE BASIN WHICH MAY BE ENHANCING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS ADJACENT WATERS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED IN JAMAICA. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WHILE S-SELY WIND OF 10 KT COVER THE NW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN. NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 48 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... WITH PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLAND AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS CONVERGING ALONG THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS BEING SUPPORTED WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WESTERN AND EASTERN COASTAL WATERS. DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DRY AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE N WESTERN ATLC NEAR 60W AND WITH BASE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N69W SW TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS NW OF A LINE FROM 30N61W SW TO 26N72W TO 25N80W. OTHERWISE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATE THE REMAINDER BASIN N OF 16N ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE REACHING 65W SW TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS