000 AXNT20 KNHC 271128 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 07N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N17W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 19W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 03N BETWEEN 02W-17W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... GENERALLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE LOCATED N OF 24N. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA W-SW TO OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N82W W-SW TO 25N90W THEN SW TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N97W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT TO 30N. OTHERWISE...OVERCAST SKIES DOMINATE AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE THE FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED. WHILE LIGHT WINDS ARE NOTED SOUTH OF THE FRONT...GENERALLY NORTH WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT FOLLOW IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE BASIN BY LATE THURSDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. BY THEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL HAVE RE-ESTABLISHED ITSELF ACROSS THE NW GULF ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. THIS OVERALL STABILITY IS RESULTING IN FAIR SKIES AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. TRADE WINDS PERSIST WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED GENERALLY S OF 13N BETWEEN 72W-77W IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND...INCLUDING THE WESTERN ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO DRY AND STABLE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND NORTHWEST NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A 1002 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N73W AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER SW TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N81W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 62W-81W. FARTHER EAST...MID- LEVEL ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 33N53W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N53W TO 30N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED S-SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N25W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN