000 AXNT20 KNHC 270552 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU FEB 27 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 02N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N22W TO 01N28W TO 03N48W TO 03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 04W-16W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... GENERALLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE GULF THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE LOCATED N OF 24N. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE DELMARVA REGION W-SW TO OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THAT IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N81W W-SW TO 26N90W THEN SW TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N98W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT TO 30N. OTHERWISE...OVERCAST SKIES DOMINATE AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE THE FRONT HAS PASSED. WHILE LIGHT WINDS ARE NOTED SOUTH OF THE FRONT...GENERALLY NORTH WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT FOLLOW IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE BASIN BY LATE THURSDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. BY THEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL HAVE RE-ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE NW GULF ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. THIS OVERALL STABILITY IS RESULTING IN FAIR SKIES AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. TRADE WINDS PERSIST WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED GENERALLY S OF 13N BETWEEN 72W-77W IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND...INCLUDING THE WESTERN ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO DRY AND STABLE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND NORTHWEST NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A 1005 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N75W AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER SW TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N81W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 68W-81W. FARTHER EAST...MID- LEVEL ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 31N57W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N53W TO 27N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 27N BETWEEN 48W AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED S-SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N24W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN