000 AXNT20 KNHC 270001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED FEB 26 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 3N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 3N19W TO 0N30W TO 1S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 0N-5N E OF 14W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE N WESTERN ATLC NEAR 50W AND WITH BASE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AS A COLD FRONT AND THEN INTO THE GULF ALONG 27N82W TO 26N90W SW TO TAMPICO MEXICO. WESTERLY TO NEAR WESTERLY FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE GULF IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC N OF 24N. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGING ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N E OF 94W. IN THE SW GULF...A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N96W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OVER OKLAHOMA EXTENDS INTO THE NW GULF PROVIDING N-NELY WIND FLOW OF 20-30 KT N OF THE FRONT. WINDS OF 10-15 KT COVER THE REMAINDER BASIN. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SE THROUGH THU THEN WEAKEN AND STALL FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OF 15 KT DOMINATE IN THE SURFACE ACROSS THE BASIN WHILE WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATE ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT WHICH TRADUCES IN OVERALL STABILITY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE SURFACE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THU. THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW A MOIST AIRMASS MOVING THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN WHERE MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ENHANCES SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER WESTERN JAMAICA. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THU MORNING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING THE SAME DAY. HISPANIOLA... LIGHT SURFACE WINDS CONVERGING ALONG THE ISLAND TERRAIN ARE SUPPORTING THE GENERATION OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ISLAND WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI AND SOUTHERN HAITI COASTAL WATERS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SAT IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS DRY AIR ALOFT PREVAILS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE N WESTERN ATLC NEAR 50W AND WITH BASE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N77W SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 27N W OF 73W. THE TROUGHING ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS IN PART A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH TAIL EXTENDS FROM 30N53W TO 29N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 51W-60W. OTHERWISE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATE THE REMAINDER BASIN N OF 17N ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH SE OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR