000
AXNT20 KNHC 261758
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1600 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                       
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N15W TO 
3N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 1N19W TO 
THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 40W AND WITHIN 
100 NM N OF AXIS FROM 31W TO 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE MOUTH OF 
THE MISSISSIPPI TO JUST N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. OVERCAST MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUDS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS...WITH SCATTERED TSTMS E OF 
89W...WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN IS N OF THE FRONT. A 125-140 KT 
JETSTREAM IS N OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES. NLY 
SURFACE WINDS 20-25 KT N OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE TO MOVE SE THROUGH THU THEN WEAKEN AND STALL FROM THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE S CENTRAL GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 
THU NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                        
GENERALLY UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY DRY AIR AND STABLE 
CONDITIONS ALOFT. THIS OVERALL STABILITY IS RESULTING IN FAIR 
SKIES AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH LATE THU. TRADE WINDS PERSIST WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS 
NOTED GENERALLY S OF 13N BETWEEN 74W-78W IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO 
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THU.
 
HISPANIOLA...                                                    
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TOP CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL 
WATERS WITH A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE MOSTLY 
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO DRY AND STABLE 
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED OVER THE 
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT 
EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N51W TO 29N60W TO 
30N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 55W-65W. A 
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 24N32W. 
A 95-105 KT JETSTREAM IS S OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM 
19N60W TO 14N35W TO 19N19W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 
3N10W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS