000 AXNT20 KNHC 261133 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED FEB 26 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1100 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N15W TO 01N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 03N BETWEEN 08W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 29W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST PACIFIC BASIN SOUTH OF MEXICO BETWEEN 90W- 110W. THIS UPPER LEVEL REGIME IS PROVIDING FOR AN OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS LOCATED WITHIN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS...THE SE CONUS...AND THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 23N. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM EASTERN LOUISIANA THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND REGION NEAR 29N102W. THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO ENTER THE EXTREME NW GULF WATERS AND WILL USHER IN N-NE WINDS RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KT THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY... GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY LATE THURSDAY. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS OCCURRING GENERALLY IN THE VICINITY OF AND NORTH OF THE FRONT N OF 28N BETWEEN 84W-97W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF THE SE CONUS. OTHERWISE...A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE EAST GULF NEAR 27N83W THAT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH MOSTLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT ANTICIPATED IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... GENERALLY UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. THIS OVERALL STABILITY IS RESULTING IN FAIR SKIES AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. TRADE WINDS PERSIST WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED GENERALLY S OF 14N BETWEEN 72W-78W IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND... INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO DRY AND STABLE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NORTHWEST NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N50W. THE FRONT CONTINUES SW TO 29N60W THEN WEST TO 30N68W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FRONT NEAR 29N64W TO 27N72W REFLECTIVE OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 29N69W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 64W-73W. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 27N BETWEEN 49W-66W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N25W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN