000 AXNT20 KNHC 252333 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE FEB 25 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA. THE ITCZ AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE SIERRA LEONE/LIBERIA BORDER TO 2N20W TO 1N30W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 30W AND 42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WITH AXIS OVER MEXICO NEAR 100W DOMINATES THE GULF REGION PRODUCING MAINLY A NW FLOW ALOFT. A 90- 110 KT JETSTREAM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IS NOTED ACROSS TEXAS AND THE NORTH GULF STATES INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF... PARTICULARLY N OF 24N. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATION WITH THESE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS. S OF 24N...INCLUDING SE MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRES OF 1018 MB EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS...EXCEPT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE GULF. THE NEXT COLD IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS LATE TONIGHT...AND REACH FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WED NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE FAR SE WATERS ON THU GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH FRI. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON WED. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY AFTERNOON PRODUCING SOME SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE SW N ATLC ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA THEN EXTENDS SW TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS NOTED OVER JAMAICA AND REGIONAL WATERS JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS. THIS OVERALL STABILITY ALOFT IS RESULTING IN ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ATLC RIDGE N OF AREA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THU. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF NE-E WINDS IN THE 20- 25 KT RANGE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. HISPANIOLA... MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WED WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE. MOISTURE WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE ON THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFF THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM 31N59W TO 28N78W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR 25N33W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 20N44W. A 90-110 KT JETSTREAM IS ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND EXTENDS FROM 19N56W TO 17N38W TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N24W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GR