000 AXNT20 KNHC 251757 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE FEB 25 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER OF SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 2N20W 1N25W 1N31W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 40W...TO 1S44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN 1W AND 2W...AND FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 2W AND 5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 36W AND 45W...AND FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 48W AND 52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 1S TO 3N BETWEEN 22W AND 36W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 55W...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S.A. ALONG 82W/83W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE U.S.A. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE SOUTH OF 25N. MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 25N. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 30N65W TO 29N70W...AND 28N76W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 28N76W TO THE TAMPA FLORIDA AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM TAMPA FLORIDA...TO 28N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...27N91W...AND TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N49W 26N60W 25N80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 25N. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 24/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 1.44 FOR BERMUDA...AND 0.07 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 23/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.96 IN BERMUDA...AND 0.67 IN FREEPORT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS PASSES THROUGH 25N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N85W...TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AT 500 FEET OR LOWER AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KBQX...KCRH...KVBS... ICAO STATION KBBF IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES AND HAZE. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KVAF...KEMK...KHQI. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AT KGUL...KGBK... KATP...AND KMDJ. ICAO STATION KDLP IS REPORTING MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE ENTIRE AREA OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AT EARLIER TIMES. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER GALVESTON AND PARTS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA ALSO. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. PATCHY FOG AND LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA. CLEARING SKIES...STILL WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS...ARE BEING REPORTED IN MISSISSIPPI. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER COASTAL ALABAMA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM VALPARAISO WESTWARD. RAIN WAS REPORTED AT MARY ESTHER DURING THE LAST OBSERVATION. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. CLEARING SKIES ARE IN THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 24-HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT 29N91W TO 28N97W. EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 82W/83W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EVENTUALLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN COLOMBIA...ALONG 10N TO 10N82W...THROUGH NORTHERN NICARAGUA INTO WESTERN HONDURAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW...TO THE SOUTH OF 20N. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 24/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.05 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 23/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC... WERE 0.08 IN ST. THOMAS...AND 0.05 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT APPARENT AT THIS TIME IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA AND SANTIAGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN BARAHONA...SANTO DOMINGO...PUNTA CANA...AND IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY-TO- WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MOST OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE OVERALL 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND FLOW THEN BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE TIME. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW BREAKS DOWN WITH TIME...GIVING WAY TO NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AND AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL SPAN HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WITH A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TOWARD 17N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N35W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 32N BETWEEN 27W AND 50W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS IT SURROUNDS THE CYCLONIC CENTER IN A LARGE PART OF THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 48W IN THE SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N24W...TO 31N32W 28N52W 25N59W 25N70W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N85W...TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N60W TO 28N76W...AND A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 28N67W TO 26N80W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 54W AND 59W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM 29N35W TO 18N60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT