000
AXNT20 KNHC 250000
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON FEB 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                
     
HE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 7N11W AND CONTINUES TO 5N14W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 5N14W 
THEN CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM 28W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL 
NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-3N BETWEEN 
31W-46W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
W FLOW ALOFT IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A 
WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT ALONG 27N...PRODUCING 
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS. MODERATE E-SE WINDS 
PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES N OF 
THE AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE N-
CENTRAL GULF EARLY WED,,,REACH FROM TAMPA TO NE MEXICO WED NIGHT 
THEN WEAKENS AS IT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE 
THU.
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN PROVIDES WESTERLY 
FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH 
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN...INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT OF 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE 
EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN WITH HIGHER WINDS TO 25 KT NEAR THE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. 
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THU.

HISPANIOLA...                                                    
FAIR SKIES AND FEW SHOWERS...THE RESULT OF SUBSIDENCE AND VERY 
DRY MID-LEVEL AIR...PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND. DEEP CONVECTION 
IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AS STRONG DRY 
AIR SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
A BROAD EASTERN ATLC RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED 
NEAR 32N29W IS RETREATING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING 
SE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE U.S. THE RIDGE IS 
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE 
REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE THROUGH THE SW N ATLC 
OVERNIGHT THEN WEAKEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER WATERS N OF 27N 
THROUGH WED MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL