000 AXNT20 KNHC 241804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON FEB 24 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 5N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N14W TO 3N22W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 29W...TO 1S39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2S BETWEEN 33W AND 41W...AND FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 41W AND 43W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 53W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60W...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS IN ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TO 29N100W ALONG THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N100W BEYOND WEST TEXAS. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 29N94W 25N98W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 29N81W 27N92W. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 86W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 21N. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 26N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO 23N89W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N97W ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AT 500 FEET OR LOWER AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...KCRH. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AT 1000 FEET OR LOWER AND VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES AND FOG ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS... KGUL...AND KDLP. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AT KEIR...KSPR... KATP...AND KMDJ. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...RAIN...AND SOME VISIBILITIES NEAR 3 MILES COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND 3 MILE VISIBILITIES COVER TEXAS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. THE VISIBILITIES RANGE FROM 3 MILES TO 6 MILES IN OTHER AREAS...ALSO REACHING THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE LOUISIANA COASTAL PLAINS. A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN NEW IBERIA...SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS SURROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTAL PLAINS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PANAMA CITY WESTWARD. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS HAVE BEEN COVERING THE AREA FROM APALACHICOLA TO TALLAHASSEE TO PERRY...TO BROOKSVILLE...TO THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA...FROM PUNTA GORDA TO THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE KEY WEST NAVAL AIR STATION. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 48-HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT 31N86W TO 26N97W. EXPECT NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN COLOMBIA...TO PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA...BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT APPARENT AT THIS TIME IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 71W AND 81W. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA ON TOP OF MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN BARAHONA...LA ROMANA... SANTIAGO...AND IN PUERTO PLATA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY-TO- NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY-TO-NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA...WITH A RIDGE AND A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND REACH SOUTHWESTERN HAITI AT 24 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES...A RIDGE IS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...GIVING NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE OVERALL 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL SPAN HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN AN AREA OF VARIABLE AND CHANGING WIND DIRECTIONS FOR THE REST OF THE OVERALL 48 HOUR PERIOD. HISPANIOLA EVEN IS FORECAST TO BE IN A COL AT THE END OF THE FORECAST TIME. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N43W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 55W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN A LARGE PART OF THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 55W. AN AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...WITH A TROUGH...COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF 23W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 35N7W TO A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N30W 27N50W 26N64W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO 23N89W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N97W ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 22N TO THE EAST OF 40W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE EAST OF 48W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT