000 AXNT20 KNHC 241133 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON FEB 24 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N10W AND CONTINUES TO 2N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N29W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ BETWEEN 15W-40W AND FROM 3N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 40W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF WITH A SMALL BUT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF ALONG 84W FROM 27W-30W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER FLORIDA INTO THE GULF NEAR CEDAR KEY ALONG 29N85W 27N89W TO 27N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 27N87W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA BAY. PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF 25N AND W OF 94W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF. THE FRONT WILL BRIEFLY STALL ALONG 24N THIS EVENING THEN LIFT BACK N AS A WEAK WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW GULF TUE NIGHT REACHING FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED NIGHT WITH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON THU. REMNANTS OF THE SECOND FRONT WILL MEANDER OVER THE SW GULF WATERS ON THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. THE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SW PENINSULA OF HAITI AND WITHIN 30 NM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED. THE TRADE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE WHILE THE REMAINDER OF TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU. HISPANIOLA... THE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SW PENINSULA OF HAITI. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THU. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THU. HOWEVER THE TRADE WINDS COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND THROUGH THE WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE W ATLC. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N75W TO 27N79W TO OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 30N71W TO 26N78W INCLUDING GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER W AFRICA SUPPORTING A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N10W TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS BECOME CUT-OFF AND IS CENTERED NEAR 25N45W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 32N34W. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO W ATLC THIS MORNING REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO 29N70W WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TO PORT CANAVERAL THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NE ON TUE AND TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD MOVING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST WED. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL STALL FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW