000 AXNT20 KNHC 240543 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON FEB 24 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 5N9W AND CONTINUES TO 3N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N24W 1N31W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ BETWEEN 13W-40W AND FROM 3N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 40W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF WITH A SMALL BUT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N GULF ALONG 88W FROM 27W-30W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N-29N E OF 88W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH DEPICTING A WIND SHIFT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF NEAR SARASOTA AND CONTINUES ALONG 29N86W TO 28N93W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE GULF N OF 27N AND W OF 95W. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS INTO THE N GULF TONIGHT AND MON STALLING ALONG 27N THEN WILL LIFT BACK N ON MON NIGHT. A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW GULF TUE NIGHT BEFORE REACHING FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED NIGHT THEN WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON THU. REMNANTS OF THE SECOND FRONT WILL MEANDER OVER THE SW GULF ON THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE AND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ON WED AND THU. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE PREVAILING ELSEWHERE THROUGH THU. THE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HAITI AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING INTO THE GULF OF GONAVE. DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED. HISPANIOLA... THE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HAITI AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING INTO THE GULF OF GONAVE. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THU. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THU. HOWEVER THE TRADE WINDS COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND THROUGH THE WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE W ATLC. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N73W TO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH E OF 80W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC THROUGH 32N10W ALONG 26N25W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 27N35W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 25N46W TO E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 17N56W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N13W TO 27N21W WHERE IT BECOMES A SHEAR LINE TO 27N35W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 32N36W. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO W ATLC LATE TONIGHT REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL BY LATE MON BEFORE STALLING FROM 32N57W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH TUE BEFORE LIFTING N OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS STRONGER THIRD FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED NIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW