000 AXNT20 KNHC 232340 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 5N10W AND CONTINUES TO 3N17W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 3N17W THEN CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM 33W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-3N BETWEEN 19W-26W AND EQUATORIAL CONVECTION BETWEEN 32W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PROVIDES SW-W FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS ADVECTING MOISTURE TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING STEERED FROM E PACIFIC WATERS TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF TO SUPPORT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF 10-15 KT BASIN WIDE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA WESTWARD TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE GULF COAST IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 28N ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN JACKSONVILLE AND SE LOUISIANA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN WATERS EARLY MONDAY AND MOVE SE...DISSIPATING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF BY MON NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE N-CENTRAL GULF TUE NIGHT AND REACH FROM TAMPA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN PROVIDES WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN...AND INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN WITH HIGHER WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. E-NE WIND FLOW AROUND 15 KT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE. HISPANIOLA... FAIR SKIES AND FEW SHOWERS...THE RESULT OF SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR...PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND. DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AS STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N38W DOMINATES THE REGION. A RIDGE EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THE BROAD RIDGE IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ALL ACROSS THE BASIN. SHALLOW ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ROUGHLY FROM 14N TO 25N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NW COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM 31N14W TO 28N25W THEN DISSIPATING TO 28N40W. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SW N ATLC EARLY MONDAY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE OVER WATERS N OF 28N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MUNDELL