000 AXNT20 KNHC 231741 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 4N8W AND CONTINUES TO 3N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 3N18W AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N30W 0N40W THEN TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 0S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-3N BETWEEN 17W- 29W...5S-0N BETWEEN 27W-40W AND FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 37W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PROVIDES SW-W FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS ADVECTING MOISTURE TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF. MOREOVER...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM THE E PACIFIC WATERS TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ON THE CENTRAL ATLC BY A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER EXTENDS AN AXIS SW ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF TO PROVIDE RETURN FLOW OF 10-15 KT BASIN WIDE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BEING ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W WESTWARD TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W TO E TEXAS NEAR 29N95W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS WELL AS MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NE GULF ARE SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 28N BETWEEN JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AND SE LOUISIANA. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN REGION OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. OTHERWISE...ADVECTION FOG IS BEING REPORTED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 90W. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN BASIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND EASTERN GULF IN THE AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATING IN THE NIGHT HOURS. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE N-CENTRAL GULF TUE NIGHT REACHING FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WED MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND PROVIDES WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN WHICH IN PART IS INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW A WESTWARD MOVING MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND S-SE WATERS WHICH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 14N BETWEEN 67W-71W. ANOTHER REGION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. IN TERMS OF WIND...EASTERLY TRADES OF 20 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN WITH HIGHER WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. E-NE WIND FLOW OF 15 KT DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. EXCEPT THAT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 15 KT BY TUE MORNING...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 48 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY BROKEN SKIES ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS BEING SUPPORTED BY A LOW LEVEL MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR HAITI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MOIST REGION CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE TRADE WINDS. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A FORMER STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC HAS DISSIPATED BY 1500 UTC. REMNANT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 67W-73W BEING ENHANCED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE N EASTERN ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N20W TO 28N30W TO 28N35W WHERE IT STARTS DISSIPATING TO 29N44W. THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW VERY DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAINSHOWERS. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 32N42W. A NEW BUT WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SW N ATLC BY EARLY MONDAY WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SLIGHTLY DEBILITATES AND CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR