000 AXNT20 KNHC 231139 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN FEB 23 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N16W AND CONTINUES TO 4N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N31W 1N40W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 40W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS SUPPORTING A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT THAT AT 23/0900 UTC ENTERS THE GULF FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA JUST S OF SARASOTA AND CONTINUES TO 27N86W. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE N GULF IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 85W-95W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF 25N. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA TO N LOUISIANA. THE FRONT WILL LIFT N TODAY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE E GULF TONIGHT AND MON BUT STALL ALONG 27N ACROSS THE W GULF THEN LIFT BACK N ON MON NIGHT. A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF TUE NIGHT REACHING FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 72W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE W ATLC. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE VIRGIN/ LEEWARD ISLANDS TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM FROM 15N64W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 73W-77W INCLUDING SW PENINSULA OF HAITI. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT NO OTHER SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE PREVAILING ELSEWHERE THROUGH WED. HISPANIOLA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM FROM 15N64W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 73W-77W INCLUDING SW PENINSULA OF HAITI. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT E THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WHEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH WED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WED. THIS WILL KEEP ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP TO THE LOWER LEVELS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS AND IS SUPPORTING A REMNANT COLD FRONT THAT AT 23/0900 UTC ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N70W TO 28N77W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR MELBOURNE. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO BEYOND 32N56W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 29N. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC THROUGH 32N19W ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 26N33W THROUGH A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR 25N49W TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N25W TO 30N33W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 30N43W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 32N44W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM 31N76W TO NE FLORIDA THIS MORNING THEN QUICKLY LIFT BACK N OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL THEN RETURN SE INTO THE NW WATERS TONIGHT REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS LATE MON THEN STALLING ALONG 27N MON NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING QUICKLY NE AS A WARM FRONT TUE AHEAD OF A THIRD STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO W ATLC ON WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW