000
AXNT20 KNHC 230533
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 AM EST SUN FEB 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES TO 5N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 2N20W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 42W-46W AND FROM 1N-3N 
BETWEEN 46W-48W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF MEXICO...                                             
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS SUPPORTING A REMNANT COLD 
FRONT THAT AT 23/0300 UTC ENTERS THE GULF FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS 
FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA BAY AND CONTINUES TO 27N84W WHERE IT BECOMES 
STATIONARY TO 25N89W THEN DISSIPATES TO 25N95W. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
ACROSS THE GULF N OF 26N. THIS IS LEAVING THE S GULF UNDER 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB 
HIGH OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO THE TEXAS COAST. THE FRONT 
WILL FURTHER DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE 
INTO THE N GULF ON SUN NIGHT AND DISSIPATE ALONG 28N ON MON. A 
THIRD STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO N GULF TUE NIGHT 
REACHING FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WED. 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W AND EXTENDS A 
RIDGE AXIS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE W ATLC. THE UPPER 
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE VIRGIN 
ISLANDS TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW PENINSULA OF HAITI AND 
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE 
CARIBBEAN BASIN. DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS 
NOTED. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN WITH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE 
PREVAILING ELSEWHERE THROUGH WED. 

HISPANIOLA...                                                 
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN IS  
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
OVER SW PENINSULA OF HAITI AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST. THE 
UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT E THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON WHEN WESTERLY 
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH WED. LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WED. THIS WILL 
KEEP ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP TO THE LOWER LEVELS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS AND IS SUPPORTING A 
REMNANT COLD FRONT THAT AT 23/0300 UTC ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 
32N74W THEN ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR VERO 
BEACH. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE W 
ATLC FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO BEYOND 32N56W AND IS PROVIDING 
DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 27N80W TO 
31N68W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC THROUGH 32N24W 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 27N40W THROUGH A WEAK UPPER LOW 
NEAR 25N51W TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. 
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS 
THROUGH 32N27W ALONG 31N34W TO 31N40W WHERE IT BECOMES 
STATIONARY ALONG 31N45W THEN NW OUT OF THE REGION NEAR 32N47W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 
30W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E 
OF 70W AND IS SPLIT BY THE ABOVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANCHORED BY A 
1029 MB HIGH NE OF THE FRONT NEAR 34N43W AND A 1030 MB HIGH SW 
OF THE FRONT NEAR 32N51W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL STALL TONIGHT 
AND LIFT N OF THE AREA SUN. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO W 
ATLC MON AND REMAIN N OF 26N AS THE LEADING EDGE PASSES INTO THE 
CENTRAL ATLC BY TUE AND THE WESTERN PORTION WILL LIFT N OF THE 
AREA AHEAD OF A THIRD STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO W ATLC ON 
WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
PAW