000 AXNT20 KNHC 230004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 6N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N14W TO 2N20W 1N25W AND 1N44W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 47W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN BRAZIL FROM 1S TO 4S BETWEEN 45W AND 52W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 1S TO 2S BETWEEN 25W AND 27W...AND FROM 5N TO 2S BETWEEN 34W AND 51W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60W...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING THROUGH 32N73W TO 28N75W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W... INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N85W. THE FRONT BECOMES DISSIPATING STATIONARY AND IT CONTINUES FROM 27N85W TO 24N91W AND 25N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N95W 18N93W...AS A REMNANT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 29N73W...TO 27N80W ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST. EARLIER RAINSHOWERS FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 86W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 20N TO 28N...MOVING TOWARD THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS IN GENERAL COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH 24N. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AT 2000 FEET OR LOWER ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KVAF... KEMK... KGUL...KGBK...KATP...KHQI AT 1800 FEET AND AT 3100 FEET...A CEILING IS AT KEIR AT 8000 FEET AND A CEILING IS AT 8500 FEET AT KSPR...KIPN AT 3500 FEET. ICAO STATION KBQX HAS BEEN REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING FOR THE LAST SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS. THE MOST CURRENT OBSERVATION LISTS SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AT 1900 FEET. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM GALVESTON SOUTHWARD. GALVESTON ALSO WAS REPORTING LIGHT RAIN FOR ITS LAST OBSERVATION. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN THE LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN PENSACOLA FLORIDA. HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN VALPARAISO AND IN MARY ESTHER. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED AT THE ST. PETERSBURG/CLEARWATER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. A LOW CLOUD CEILING OF 300 FEET COVERS THE SARASOTA/BRADENTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AREA. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE KEY WEST NAVAL AIR STATION. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS NEAR 27N40W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...REACHING A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N53W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 24N53W TO 18N64W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLAND AREA...TO 14N70W...AND TO THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM 17N TO 26N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 26N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO 19N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 13N83W JUST OFF THE EAST CENTRAL COAST OF NICARAGUA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW...MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 80W AND INCLUDING TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 77W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 22/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.20 IN GUADELOUPE AND 0.12 SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA TO 6N88W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 2N TO 8N TO THE EAST OF 80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 14 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W AND FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 71W AND 81W. ...HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS NEAR 27N40W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...REACHING A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N53W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 24N53W TO 18N64W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLAND AREA...TO 14N70W...AND TO THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM 17N TO 26N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... FEW LOW CLOUDS AND CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN BARAHONA. RAINSHOWERS ARE NEAR SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE REPORTED IN LA ROMANA AND IN PUERTO PLATA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS AND CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY-TO- WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA...WITH A RIDGE AND A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL COVER THE AREA...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS NEAR 27N40W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...REACHING A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N53W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 24N53W TO 18N64W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLAND AREA...TO 14N70W...AND TO THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM 17N TO 26N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...WITH A TROUGH...IS MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF 40W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 32N/33N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 28W AND 43W. A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N49W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 29N30W...TO THE 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...THROUGH 29N63W 26N75W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO 19N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 13N83W JUST OFF THE EAST CENTRAL COAST OF NICARAGUA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET FROM 18N TO 25N TO THE EAST OF 65W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF THE LINE FROM 18N50W TO 07N40W. THE 6-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF 45W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT