000 AXNT20 KNHC 221804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THE GALE WILL CONTINUE TO THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO AWIPS HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC TO NEAR 5N17W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 2N24W TO 1N32W TO 1N41W TO S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM THE ITCZ TO 4N BETWEEN 35W-45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 23W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS TO THE N GULF COAST SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 22/1500 UTC STRETCHED FROM WESTERN ATLANTIC SW THROUGH NE FLORIDA TO SAINT PETERSBURG FLORIDA...AND CONTINUED SW TO NEAR 27N86W WHERE IT BEGAN TO WEAKEN AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N90W TO 23N94W TO 21N95W...THEN TURNED SE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. LATEST NWS NATIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR DISPLAY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF ALONG AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE FRONT E OF ABOUT 85W. ELSEWHERE...BROKEN TO OCCASIONALLY OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE FRONT W OF 90W. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHES OF DENSE SEA FOG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF FROM 25N TO 27N E OF 84W TO THE FLORIDA COAST. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE CENTRAL GULF LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE SUN INTO MON. THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N AS A WEAK WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND SUN. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF ON SUN NIGHT AND DISSIPATE ALONG 28N ON MON. A THIRD AND STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TUE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NEWD ROUGHLY THROUGH TO NE OF THE AREA THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS SWWD TO THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH IS HELPING TO GENERATE PATCHES OF MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOWERS THAT ARE QUICKLY MOVING W IN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. THESE SHOWERS ARE IMPACTING THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN LIMITING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST INTO MON. HISPANIOLA... THE DRY AND STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING OVER AND THE ISLAND. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS REVEALING ONLY SCATTERED SMALL LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLAND. SOME OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IMPACTING THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AS DESCRIBED ABOVE MAY POSSIBLY AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND AND AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING WATERS TONIGHT INTO MON. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RATHER QUICKLY TO THE W IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN CONUS AND IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 22/1500 UTC ENTERED THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE WESTERN ATLC AT 32N75W...AND SW TO INLAND FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH...AND CONTINUED SW TO W CENTRAL FLORIDA AND TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DESCRIBED ABOVE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND NE TO 26N71W TO BEYOND BERMUDA. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN IT AND THE UPPER BROAD TROUGH IS DIFFLUENT. THIS IS HELPING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OBSERVED WITHIN 240 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 32N30W SW TO 28N41W TO AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC CENTER AT 25N53W AND SW TO OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE BAHAMAS ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR JUST N OF AREA AT 33N52W. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL TONIGHT AND SLOWLY LIFT BACK N SUN. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ATLC SUN NIGHT STALLING FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS LATE MON THEN LIFT NE ON TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ AGUIRRE