000 AXNT20 KNHC 221132 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THE GALE WILL CONTINUE TO THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO AWIPS HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N14W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N16W TO 3N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N23W 2N41W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM ITCZ TO 4N BETWEEN 42W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS TO THE N GULF COAST SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 22/0900 UTC ENTERS THE GULF FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY AND CONTINUES TO 27N86W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 24N92W 21N95W THEN SE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT AND OVER THE SW GULF S OF 25N. COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF ON SUN NIGHT AND DISSIPATE ALONG 28N ON MON. A THIRD STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO N GULF TUE NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS SW ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN LIMITING THESE SHOWERS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE PREVAILING ELSEWHERE THROUGH TUE. THE TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN WITH THE GALE FORCE WINDS DIMINISH LATER TODAY. HISPANIOLA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT E THROUGH EARLY SUN WHEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THE DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT KEEP ANY LOW LEVEL SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP FROM BECOME STRONG. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS AND IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 22/0900 UTC ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N78W THEN ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR SAINT AUGUSTINE. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO OVER THE W ATLC TO BEYOND BERMUDA AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT TO 80W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N37W ALONG 24N55W TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS PUERTO RICO. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 75W ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 33N56W. COLD FRONT WILL STALL TONIGHT AND DRIFT NW OF THE AREA ON SUN. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO W ATLC SUN NIGHT STALLING FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS LATE MON THEN LIFT NE ON TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW