000 AXNT20 KNHC 211753 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N87W SW TO THE NE MEXICO COAST NEAR 25N98W. GALE FORCE NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING FROM 25N TO 27N WEST OF THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NW GULF. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT IS GENERATING GALE FORCE NE WINDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 05N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N17W TO 02N23W TO 02N34W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 17W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO A BASE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEAR 30N90W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N87W SW TO THE NE MEXICO COAST NEAR 25N98W. A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE EXTENDS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 31N85W SW TO 27N89W THAT BECOMES PART OF THE PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING S-SW TO 23N93W TO 19N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 26N WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SQUALL LINE AND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...STRONG NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT... ASIDE FROM THE GALE FORCE CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE...ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS ON SATURDAY FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE SW GULF WATERS. THEREAFTER...LIGHT SOUTHERN RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 24N60W SW TO A BROAD BASE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N72W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGHING THAT ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE BASIN RESULTING IN FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE MOVING WESTWARD WITHIN THE TRADE WIND REGIME...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY. A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT IS GENERATING E-NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT...WITH HIGHER WINDS TO GALE FORCE OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND DIMINISHING GRADUALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SW NORTH ATLC RIDGING WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. ...HISPANIOLA... A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ISLAND WITHIN E-SE TRADES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE SE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE PUSHED OFF THE SE CONUS COAST AND ARE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS REMAINING N OF 28N W OF 77W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A SLOW PROGRESSION EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED TO THE EAST WEAKENS AND RETREATS OVER THE WEEKEND. TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED E-NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N60W. TO THE SE OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM 32N51W TO A BROAD BASE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. WHILE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 50W-59W. FINALLY...THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N23W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN