000 AXNT20 KNHC 201748 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT IS GENERATING GALE FORCE NE WINDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 04N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N14W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-29W...AND S OF 05N BETWEEN 41W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... OVERALL THE GULF REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY RETREATING EASTWARD WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N82W TO 26N92W. S-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS W OF 90W. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND IS MOVING NE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH STRONG N-NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 25 TO 30 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NW GULF FRIDAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS ON SATURDAY FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION TO THE SW GULF WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY ZONAL DRY AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT...RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE RESULT AS WELL ASIDE FROM A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD WITHIN THE TRADE WIND REGIME. DUE TO A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT...E-NE WINDS REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT...WITH HIGHER WINDS TO GALE FORCE OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND DIMINISHING GRADUALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SW NORTH ATLC RIDGING WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ISLAND WITHIN E-SE TRADES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT WILL PREVAIL RESULTING IN OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 26N65W THAT SUPPORTS AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 60W- 66W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N73W. FARTHER EAST...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AZORES NEAR 39N35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN