000 AXNT20 KNHC 201110 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU FEB 20 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLC EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT IS GENERATING GALE FORCE NE WINDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH SEAS FROM 9 TO 11 FT. THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SAT MORNING. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES TO 5N15W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 5N16W AND CONTINUES TO 0N30W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 0S49W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 9W-14W AND WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 18W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-4N BETWEEN 40W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. AND INTO THE GULF PROVIDES NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO EXTEND SW INTO THE GULF. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH ALONG HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. RETURN FLOW OF 15-20 KT DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND CONTINUE TO GENERATE ADVECTION FOG ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS N OF 27N W OF 86W. SURFACE RIDGING AND RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE TO EXTEND FROM TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA SW TO SE MEXICO BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE GULF FRI NIGHT AND WILL START DISSIPATING BY SAT MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AND STABLE AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO...THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES AND FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 66W-74W. IN TERMS OF WIND...EASTERLY TRADES OF 20 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WITH NEAR TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. OVER THE NW BASIN TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE. GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT MORNING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE ISLAND LATE FRIDAY MORNING WHICH MAY ENHANCE SHALLOW CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N49W AND EXTENDS SW TO 26N59W TO 27N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE AT THE TAIL OF THE FRONT FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 61W-68W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 140 NM WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE JUST EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BASE OVER THE BAHAMAS. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER ATLC WATERS ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH NEAR 38N36W. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE SW N ATLC FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE AS A STATIONARY FRONT SAT NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR