000 AXNT20 KNHC 200600 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU FEB 20 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLC EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT IS GENERATING GALE FORCE NE WINDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH SEAS FROM 9 TO 11 FT. THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N11W AND CONTINUES TO 4N15W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 4N15W AND CONTINUES TO 1N27W TO 2S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 8W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4S-4N BETWEEN 38W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. AND INTO THE GULF PROVIDES NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO EXTEND SW INTO THE GULF. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH ALONG HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. RETURN FLOW OF 15-20 KT DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND CONTINUE TO GENERATE ADVECTION FOG ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS N OF 27N W OF 89W. SURFACE RIDGING AND RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE TO EXTEND FROM TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA SW TO SE MEXICO BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE GULF FRI NIGHT AND WILL START DISSIPATING BY SAT MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AND STABLE AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA...WINDWARD PASSAGE AND CENTRAL TO EASTERN CUBA. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS AS WELL AS S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W-71W. IN TERMS OF WIND...EASTERLY TRADES OF 20 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WITH NEAR TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. OVER THE NW BASIN TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE. GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ...HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND BEING ENHANCED BY LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER SURFACE TROUGH. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS A DRY AIRMASS MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...ANOTHER MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE ISLAND BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING WHICH MAY ENHANCE SHOWERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N46W AND EXTENDS TO 26N61W WHERE IT STARTS DISSIPATING TO 27N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE AT THE TAIL OF THE FRONT FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 63W-69W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 140 NM WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE JUST EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BASE. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH NEAR 39N38W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 33N19W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR