000
AXNT20 KNHC 192342
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 PM EST WED FEB 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED 
ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE 
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT IS GENERATING GALE FORCE 
NE WINDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 
13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 04N15W TO THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM S OF 04N 
BETWEEN 44W-51W.

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF MEXICO...                                             

SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 30N. 
5-10 KT SE SURFACE WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE ENTIRE 
AREA. PRESENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 70'S AND 80'S OVER THE 
ENTIRE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS OVER THE W GULF W 
OF 90W WHILE A SLIGHT TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF. VERY STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE 
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT TO BE JUST INLAND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST 
WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE OVER TEXAS WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES 
E TO FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                           

A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING A GALE ALONG THE 
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE TO PERSIST 
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A FEW PATCHES OF SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING WESTWARD WITHIN THE TRADEWIND 
REGIME NAMELY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND E 
CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER 
GUATEMALA...E HONDURAS...AND COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... 
ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                           

PRESENTLY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER CENTRAL 
HISPANIOLA OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               

SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 30N W OF 
70W WITH FAIR WEATHER. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N40W TO 30N48W TO 27N60W. A DISSIPATING 
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 27N67W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1029 MB HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N21W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS 
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE ATLANTIC S OF 30N. EXPECT OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DRIFT N WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA