000 AXNT20 KNHC 191749 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED FEB 19 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT IS GENERATING GALE FORCE NE WINDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 04N15W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM S OF 04N BETWEEN 44W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... OVERALL THE GULF REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N81W TO 28N96W. S-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY...THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE BASIN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND EJECTS E-NE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH STRONG N-NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 25 TO 30 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NW GULF FRIDAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY ZONAL DRY AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT...RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE RESULT AS WELL ASIDE FROM A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD WITHIN THE TRADE WIND REGIME. DUE TO A STRENGTHEN PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT...E-NE WINDS REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT...WITH HIGHER WINDS OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND DIMINISHING GRADUALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SW NORTH ATLC RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND WITHIN E-NE TRADES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ALONG 30N THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AND BEGIN SLIDING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RELAXING OF THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER TRADE WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IN THE VICINITY OF 36N52W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE AZORES SW TO 31N42W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO 26N64W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 60W- 66W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W SW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N81W AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. FARTHER EAST...ASIDE FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MENTIONED...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE AS WELL ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 32N22W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN