000 AXNT20 KNHC 191110 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED FEB 19 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W AND CONTINUES TO 5N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 4N17W AND CONTINUES TO 1N30W TO TO 1N40W TO 1S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4S-1N BETWEEN 32W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MAINLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW ATLC SW ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE NE BASIN. RETURN FLOW ALONG THE N-NW GULF COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS IS GENERATING ADVECTION FOG N OF 27N WEST OF 86W...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGING AND RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE TO EXTEND FROM TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA SW TO SE MEXICO BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE GULF FRI NIGHT AND WILL START DISSIPATING BY SAT MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AND STABLE AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW TO NEAR 23N67W IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 77W-84W AND OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING APPROXIMATELY FROM 21N67W TO 14N68W. THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND IS GENERATING SIMILAR WEATHER OVER THE PASSAGE AS WELL AS EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. TRAILING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN TERMS OF WIND...EASTERLY TRADES OF 15-20 KT DOMINATE BASIN WIDE WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM 25 KT TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY WEST OF HISPANIOLA WHILE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE QUICKLY APPROACHES. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD...THESE SHOWERS WILL EXTEND TO HAITI LATER TODAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA LATER THIS MORNING INCREASING MOISTURE AND GENERATING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A REMNANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N45W AND EXTENDS TO 27N51W WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT TO 24N61W WHERE IT STARTS DISSIPATING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 61W-66W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH NEAR 40N51W WITH A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 33N23W. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT LATER TODAY WHICH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SAT MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR