000 AXNT20 KNHC 190604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED FEB 19 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N14W AND CONTINUES TO 5N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 4N17W AND CONTINUES TO 1N30W TO 2S44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN 22W-25W AND FROM 5S-3N BETWEEN 32W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW ATLC SW ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF WITH A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 28N83W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE S GULF WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL GULF. RETURN FLOW ALONG THE N-NW GULF COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS IS GENERATING ADVECTION FOG N OF 27N WEST OF 90W...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGING AND RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE TO EXTEND FROM TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA SW TO SE MEXICO BY FRIDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS MORNING. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-18N...INCLUDING NORTHERN HONDURAS AND NE NICARAGUA. SIMILAR WEATHER IS OVER EASTERN CUBA SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING APPROXIMATELY FROM 20N65W TO 13N65W. THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH TRAILING MOISTURE GENERATING SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS SOME OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. IN TERMS OF WIND...EASTERLY TRADES OF 15-20 KT DOMINATE BASIN WIDE WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WED MORNING WEST OF HISPANIOLA WHILE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS MOIST AIR IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE ISLAND BY A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS WILL EXTEND TO HAITI LATER TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA LATER THIS MORNING INCREASING MOISTURE AND GENERATING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A REMNANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N47W AND EXTENDS TO 26N55W WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT TO 23N65W WHERE IT STARTS DISSIPATING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 60W-65W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH NEAR 41N56W WITH A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH NEAR 33N24W. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC TONIGHT WHILE THE STATIONARY PORTION DIES OUT. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR