000 AXNT20 KNHC 182357 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES TO 2N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 28W-48W TO S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 48W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF THIS EVENING. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH OVER FLORIDA JUST N OF ORLANDO TO TUXPAN MEXICO. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE S GULF WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE N GULF. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE NW GULF AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE THU MOVING SE THEN STALL FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO SW GULF BY EARLY FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE W ATLC TO OVER E CUBA PROVIDING MOISTURE TO THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 75W-78W. THE NE SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE PRESENT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AT 18/2100 UTC IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 14N63W TO 20N65W BRINGING IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-18N W OF 65W. THE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E THROUGH THU. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED INCREASING MOISTURE AND GENERATING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A REMNANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N49W AND EXTENDS TO 24N63W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO E CUBA NEAR 20N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 27N AND WITHIN 90/120 NM W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH ABOUT 200 NM S OF NOVA SCOTIA CANADA WITH A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 34N26W. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC TONIGHT WHILE THE STATIONARY PORTION DIES OUT. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE W ATLC N OF 28N LATE WED AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THU. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI THEN STALL FROM 31N78W TO 30N81W BY SAT MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW